Two weeks into the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, global experts are raising concerns about the long-term nuclear implications of the war.
For years, Iran maintained a nuclear programme that remained just short of weapons-grade capability – a strategic decision that allowed Tehran to maintain leverage without openly crossing the nuclear threshold. However, sustained military strikes and mounting damage to infrastructure are now raising questions about whether that calculus could change.
Analysts warn that a battered Iran may increasingly focus on deterrence — ensuring that such attacks cannot happen again. Some experts fear that if the conflict intensifies and the leadership feels existential pressure, Tehran could reconsider its nuclear strategy.
While the possibility of a full nuclear war remains extremely unlikely, specialists in Nuclear Strategy and International Security caution that prolonged conflict can push states toward options they might otherwise avoid.
The concern is not necessarily the development of a nuclear warhead but the potential use of radiological devices — often referred to as “dirty bombs” — which combine conventional explosives with radioactive material. Such weapons would not have the destructive power of nuclear weapons but could cause widespread panic and long-term contamination.
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